Why El Niño means worse drought and fewer hurricanes in Maryland

Lily Carey, The Baltimore Sun on Jun 16, 2026

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BALTIMORE — A moderate-to-severe drought in Maryland has caused Baltimore’s reservoirs to dip dangerously low. And despite a rainy end to May, that drought likely isn’t going away anytime soon, experts said.

The reason: It’s an El Niño year, meaning a global weather cycle is bringing a drier summer — and a less intense Atlantic hurricane season — to the state. The weather phenomenon, which stems from warmer-than-average Pacific Ocean waters, happens every few years and is driving a drier forecast across much of the northern United States this summer.

The calmer storms are good news for the low-lying Eastern Shore, which has emerged largely unscathed from the last few hurricane seasons. But El Niño could spell trouble for Baltimore’s drinking water supply, prompting local officials to review backup plans to draw water from the Susquehanna River in an emergency.

“While the rainfall provided a welcome boost, reservoir levels remain near their lowest levels in roughly 20 years,” said Jennifer Combs, a spokesperson for the Baltimore City Department of Public Works (DPW). “Groundwater, which helps sustain streamflow into the reservoirs, remains below normal because of a cumulative rainfall deficit that has persisted for nearly two years. Until groundwater conditions recover and reservoir inflows increase, additional precipitation will be needed to continue replenishing reservoir storage.”

In a normal year, trade winds in the Pacific Ocean often blow west along the equator, bringing cold water to the surface near the Americas. That cooler water influences how much hot and cold air is in the atmosphere and drives the Pacific jet stream, a pathway of strong winds that influences weather patterns in the United States.

During an El Niño weather cycle, trade winds slow or reverse direction in the Pacific, instead blowing eastward. This causes warm water to spread across much of the Pacific, and shifts the jet stream down toward the southern U.S.

For Maryland and much of the Northeast, El Niño typically means hotter, drier weather and a weaker hurricane season, said Luis Rosa, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service Baltimore-Washington. He added that this June will be much drier than normal and Maryland may not see above-normal precipitation until “probably October.”

NOAA’s official Atlantic hurricane season prediction, released in May, anticipated a 55% chance of a below-average hurricane season, a 35% chance of an average season and a 10% chance of an above-average season.

NOAA projects that there will be between eight and 14 named storms — those with winds above 39 mph — during the 2026 season, three to six of which will become hurricanes and one to three of which will be Category 3 or higher.

Still, local authorities such as DPW, the Maryland Port Administration and waterside cities like Annapolis are preparing for the upcoming season.

“It only takes one storm to make it a bad season for anyone,” Rosa said. “We don’t know how many of those are going to make landfall, so people have to prepare regardless of outlook.”

The forecast also means Baltimore’s drought is likely to persist throughout the summer and into the early fall, Rosa said. After that, the subtropical jet stream is likely to strengthen, bringing above-average rainfall during the final months of 2026, he said.

In May, DPW issued voluntary water restrictions, encouraging residents of Baltimore City and parts of Baltimore, Carroll, Howard and Harford counties to use water sparingly as reservoir levels declined.

The city uses both short- and long-term weather forecasts to make decisions about any possible water restrictions, Combs said. When water levels in the city’s three reservoirs are very low, the city has a backup plan to draw water from the Susquehanna River. The last time it did so was in 2002, when water levels in Prettyboy Reservoir were 30 feet lower than the reservoir’s typical crest, she added.

“Out of an abundance of caution, the department must plan for the possibility that drought conditions will persist,” Combs said. “This conservative approach helps ensure an adequate and reliable water supply for customers, regardless of how seasonal forecasts ultimately develop.”

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