Greg Cote's Week 2 NFL picks

Our 36th season of NFL picks in the Miami Herald has begun. We launched the “Friday Page” in 1991, when Dan Marino was still in his Pro Bowl prime, the Grateful Dead had the highest-grossing music tour, and LeBron James was a 7-year-old kid in Akron. As it tends to do, time has flown. Our new season did not begin ideally, but we shall shed the mediocre start! Week 1 highlights included a rare Exacto (exact score) on Jags’ 34-10 win over Browns, and 49ers-with-points vs. Rams. The push was Seahawks beating Pats by three. Rebound time!

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— Week 1: 9-7, .563 overall; 7-8-1, .469 vs. spread.

— Season: 9-7, .563 overall; 7-8-1, .469 vs. spread.

— Final 2025: 175-96, .646 overall; 131-135-5, .493 vs. spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 2 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

GIANTS (1-0) at RAMS (0-1)

Line: LAR by 7.

Cote’s pick: LAR, 30-17.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN/ABC.

Real GOTW probably was Lions-Bills on Thursday night, but the committee likes this as an alternative because of what each team did last week. The long-downtrodden Giants handled rival Dallas as the Big Apple swooned over Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo, while the megahyped, Super Bowl-favorite Rams got schooled by rival 49ers in Australia. Something’s gotta give here, right? One of those two results will be proved the bigger fluke and, sorry, New York, but it’ll be you. L.A., at home, doesn’t have a travel itinerary to botch this week, and we should see a big bounce-back show from Matthew Stafford & Co. This will also mark the season debut of unretired DT Aaron Donald to make up for the absence of edge-rusher Myles Garrett, who fizzled in his debut last week and now is out for a few weeks last. Nobody smart is giving up on Rams as Super-favorites, and his should erase any doubts.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

JAGUARS (1-0) at BRONCOS (0-1)

Line: DEN by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: JAC, 24-20.

TV: 4:05 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” trumpets the Upset Bird. “Jacksonvaawwk!” Denver was 14-3 last year. I thought there was a fluke element and expected a downturn in ‘26. Jacksonville went 13-4 — including a 34-20 win in Denver — and it felt legit, like the start of something. Still feel that way. Jags coach Liam Coen has the nerd persona down pat (think Mike McDaniel), but there is evidence of brilliance there. Love Jax’s roster construction on both sides, and QB Trevor Lawrence is in his prime as he surfs onto to a higher tier of budding excellence. Broncos are tough to beat at home but watch Lawrence do it ... again. “Saw what you did there with the ‘surfs’ reference to a QB who looks like he should be carrying a gnarly board on Huntington Beach,” notes U-Bird. “Catch a wave and you’re sittin’ on top of the waaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 2

Thursday night pick was @Bills (1-0, -4 1/2) over Lions (1-0), 34-20.

Panthers (0-1, -2.5) over @Falcons (0-1), 23-21: Upset alert! It’s a small feeling deep in the gut, just not quite loud enough for me pull the trigger on it. Home opener vs. a division rival will find Atlanta stoked, and Cooper Rush at QB isn’t a discernible downgrade if useless lefties Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. are both out again.

@Bears (1-0, -4 1/2) over Vikings (1-0), 30-24: Caleb Williams and this Chitown offense are for-real potent, but Brian Flores’ Vikes’ D can be crazy disruptive. Makes this division rivalry — one of only three 1-0 matchups in Week 2 — a sneaky Game of Week candidate. Take Bears at home to outscore either Kyler Murray (iffy after concussion) or Carson Wentz.

Eagles (1-0, -7) over @Titans (0-1), 34-13: Tennessee QB Cam Ward out of Miami has to really hate his situation in Nashville right now. Sunday won’t help.

@Patriots (0-1, -5 1/2) over Steelers (1-0), 20-6: Drake Maye is coming off a three-pick finish in season debut, but Pats’ home opener should find his team rested (after playing last Wednesday) and ready. Expect the kind of afternoon that makes Aaron Rodgers wonder why he’s playing one last season.

Packers (0-1, -3 1/2) over @Jets (1-0), 31-23: Jets fans, be careful investing too much hope in a season-opening win over the lowly Titans. You’re still the Jets. But both teams’ defensive injuries could make this a bit of a fun shootout.

@Buccaneers (0-1, -8 1/2) over Browns (0-1), 40-10: It’s the Baker Bowl as Bucs QB Baker Mayfield — Cleveland’s 2018 top draft pick and a four-year Brown — faces his former team ... which would likely rather have him back than be stuck with Deshaun Watson until he inevitably loses his job to Shedeur Sanders. The Browns are a team rebuilding Miami would beat; i.e., really bad.

@Ravens (1-0, -8 1/2) over Saints (0-1), 37-13: Lamar Jackson is flourishing in Baltimore’s retooled offense and the is-he-the-greatest-ever talk is rightly materializing for RB Derrick Henry. It is with cause that the Raves have nudged ahead of Buffalo (per DraftKings) as betting favorite to win the AFC.

@Texans (0-1, -2 1/2) over Bengals (1-0), 27-17: Upset alert! Give ‘Gals a big shot in this GOTW-caliber matchup assuming QB Joe Burrow (back) plays as expected. Less certain to play is Houston’s featured WR, Nico Collins, but we like Texans at home anyway with a rebound game on defense after Buffalo and Josh Allen had their way last week.

@Chargers (0-1, -6 1/2) over Raiders (1-0), 24-16: Justin Herbert and Mike McDaniel’s new offense were clunky in a home loss to Arizona in Week 1, but the improvement here should be palpable. Meanwhile Las Veas beating Miami proved little as the Fins gave the game away in a way the Bolts won’t. Both teams could be missing key targets with Raiders TE Brock Bowers and LAC WR Lad McConkey both iffy.

@49ers (1-0, -13 1/2) over Dolphins (0-1), 34-13: Point spreads don’t get a lot bigger than this in the NFL. This one was shaped by Week 1 results, which seemed to verify that the rebuilding Dolphins are bad, while greatly elevating estimation of the Niners. When you handle the (supposedly) mighty Rams, 27-7, it gets attention. Miami’s best hope here, frankly? That San Fran will be overconfident, in letdown mode, or suffering delayed jet lag from the Australia trip. I mean, human nature has the 49ers taking the Fins lightly, right? Niners are going from clobbering the preseason Super Bowl favorite to facing a team jousting with Cleveland for consensus worst in the league. Cue Al Michael on “Do you believe in miracles?” I don’t in this game. Miami stayed out west all week for the 1-hour flight from Vegas to San Fran. Smart. But it doesn’t erase that the Niners are superior all over the field. Dolphins killed themselves last week vs. Raiders. They intercepted Kirk Cousins twice, had chances and still lost. Doesn’t help when you somehow manage to return a kickoff 79 yards and yet find a way to get zero points out of it. Miami will need a perfect game to even stay close Sunday, a gargantuan ask of the youngest team in the NFL playing a veteran, pedigreed opponent.

@Cowboys (0-1, -4 1/2) over Commanders (0-1), 27-17: The end seems near for embattled Comms coach Dan Quinn and this won’t help. Dallas pretty much owns this division foe and that should continue here. Washington gave Philly a fight last week but Dallas and Dak Prescott have too much firepower for Washers’ a lower-tier defense.

Seahawks (1-0, -3 1/2) over @Cardinals (1-0), 23-9: ‘Zona impressively upset the Chargers last week and Seahawks will be without injured QB Sam Darnold here as Drew Lock starts. Yet the Upset Bird is nowhere to be seen. Watch the reigning Super Bowl champs dominate on the defensive side.

@Chiefs (1-0, -6 1/2) over Colts (0-1), 31-16: Interesting matchup for the Sunday night stage as KC’s Kenneth Walker III and Indy’s Jonathan Taylor put on a presumed ground game show. NFL’s biggest theme out of Week 1 may have been how adding Walker is just the gift Patrick Mahomes needed. Big story here, though, is that one team has a good defense. The other, not so much.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.]